A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
