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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest upset.

But the current competition is profoundly different. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and recent also-rans rising in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal year!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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