🔗 Share this article

The gravest possible consequences of the climate emergency for the UK have been mapped by researchers, encompassing a scorching 4C jump in mean temperatures to a two-metre surge in sea levels. An alternative projection envisions a plunge of 6C in temperatures following the collapse of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt agriculture and energy needs.

Plausible Extremes, Not Forecasts

These impacts, a number of which are connected to irreversible climate shifts, are viewed as low probability but possible. The team explained that these scenarios filled a gap in risk assessment that had left the UK unprepared for catastrophic possibilities.

"The severe weather events we have mapped aren’t predictions, but they are credible," commented the lead researcher who led the research. "The UK has been formulating policy without the methods to assess extreme possibilities. We've now supplied planners what they need to get ready for climate outcomes they hope never happen, but must not overlook."

A Spectrum of Harsh Climate Possibilities

Another collection of severe models sets out the potential extent of harsh climate between now and the end of the century. These show that thermometer readings could soar in some months by up to 6C higher than the norm, while rainfall could be 300% of standard measurements.

The chance of the extreme scenarios coming to pass could not be calculated due to a lack of certainty about what steps will be implemented to address global warming and how the Earth's systems will behave. This analysis was described as similar to defence planning or stress tests for financial systems.

Critical Outcome Details

• Severe Heating: Planetary heating soaring past 4C by 2100 could transpire if climate action collapses or if powerful amplifying effects like the Amazon basin becoming a net carbon source unleash its huge repository of carbon. This would result in intense and enduring heatwaves and water shortages hitting the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A critical sea current, the North Atlantic current, is losing strength and losing stability due to ocean warming. A collapse commencing by 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Farming would face immense difficulties and water supplies would be fundamentally reshaped," noted Arnell.
• Sudden Ocean Inundation: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica disintegrate quickly, inundating seaside communities. In contrast to the other scenarios, this possibility is already understood by coastal engineers.
• Pollution Paradox: Temperatures could also be pushed higher by about 0.75C if airborne particulates is sharply cut. This unexpected result occurs because pollution particles from burning coal reflect sunlight from reaching the ground.

Building Resilience Against the Extreme

The worst-case scenarios could be used to inform the building of critical national infrastructure, such as new towns, power generation facilities and urban drainage systems. Knowledge about these future hazards could also hasten the drive to slash fossil fuel emissions.

The analysis formulated the severe projections using a combination of real-world events, climate models and climate physics. The possibilities omit broader worldwide issues including the global food shortages and resource wars.

This work was requested as part of a government’s climate resilience programme. Earlier reports have cautioned that not enough attention was being allocated to low‐likelihood but high‐impact risks.

An independent advisory body has said that the UK needs to "become resilient to moderate heating" and evaluate the risks for severe warming. Past policy documents have been labeled being "insufficient" by some observers.

An official statement said: "Global warming is at the center of the country's focus, both adapting for the future and establishing itself as a renewable energy leader. It is crucial that the UK is ready for the consequences."